Global headwinds impact aircraft deliveries but growth is around corner
August figures from ADS show drop in market, but trade body says UK can take advantage of growth opportunities
Aircraft orders and deliveries have seen a significant year on year reduction as the market waits for factors suppressing long-term growth to pass, according to industry body ADS.
Aircraft orders have seen a 79 per cent decrease and aircraft deliveries have seen a respective decrease of 49 per cent on August 2018. ADS reports that these have resulted in a negative impact on engine orders, which have seen a 78 per cent decrease year-on-year.
There was growth within widebody aircraft during August, with three more deliveries than last year and a 200 per cent increase in widebody engine orders. August 2019 also saw strong delivery figures for widebody engines, with a 12 per cent increase on last year contributing to the continued trend in the year to date of stronger delivery figures for widebody aircraft up 18 per cent and engines up 16 per cent compared to the first eight months of 2018.
The overall backlog of aircraft orders declined by 3 per cent in the year from August 2018, as customers waited for greater certainty and developments in the single-aisle aircraft market segment before placing orders. However, current backlog orders of 13,759 are still worth up to £225bn to the UK.
Global aviation industry set for "significant growth"
The global aviation industry is expected to see significant growth in the coming years. In September, Airbus published its Global Market Forecast 2019-2038, showing the aerospace industry expects the world’s passenger and cargo aircraft fleet to more than double from around 23,000 aircraft today to nearly 48,000 by 2038. In addition to the new aircraft needed to expand the global fleet, more than 14,000 older models are expected to be replaced by more modern and fuel efficient aircraft.
ADS Chief Executive Paul Everitt said: “The global aerospace industry has been facing some obvious challenges, and these have resulted in reduced aircraft orders and deliveries. There remains very strong international demand and we expect these to recover and continue on an upward trend in the years ahead.”
No Deal Brexit "worst possible outcome"
“The UK has a fantastic opportunity, but only if we remain globally competitive and avoid disruption to our just-in-time supply chains. A No Deal Brexit would be the worst possible outcome for UK aerospace and efforts should be focused on securing a deal that provides regulatory alignment and frictionless trade.”